The Mind of Kenney Young

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Betting on sports ‘futures’ is an enjoyable and potentially profitable way to wager, but there are several potential risks that can lead to losses. Here’s a rundown of things to avoid:

Don’t bet at the first place you look: In other words, shop around for the best price. This is essential to all aspects of sports betting, but especially important with futures wagers. You’ll find more disparity between prices from book to book on futures than any other betting proposition. From a theoretical standpoint, a little work can yield much better value. From a practical standpoint, that means a higher payout should you win. The reason for this is that individual sportsbooks’ aren’t as worried about what the other guys are doing as they are with most other bets. Once the futures “market” is set books move the lines almost exclusively on their own financial position. The market simply doesn’t respond as quickly to futures wagers as it does to individual game lines so it is essential to do the extra work to get the best price on your proposition.

In a competitive field, don’t obsess with picking the winner: This may sound like a strange concept, but once you understand the theory behind it it makes perfect sense. In a large field–the NCAA basketball tournament is a perfect example–the top few favorites are invariably priced at odds that are less than the ‘true odds’ of them winning. On the other hand, there are always teams that fly ‘under the radar’ available at higher prices that present a betting overlay.

In more theoretical terms, the ‘true odds’ of a Duke or similar top team winning the tournament are almost always higher than the price offered. Think of it this way–say we’re betting Duke to win the national title at 2/1. This means that the Blue Devils would have to win more than 33% of the time to break even. So lets say, for the sake of argument, that we could play the tournament over 100 times. Would Duke come out on top more than 33 of these times? If not, they represent a poor value. Let’s say that they win 30 of 100 times. This means that any price under +333 or thereabouts is a poor wagering value.

Note that the more competitive the market, the more difficult it is to find good value on the favorites. Since you can make a case for quite a few teams to win the NCAA tournament at this point this particular futures market is clearly a very competitive one. In a less competitive marketplace it might be possible to “pick the winner” and have it be a good value though you will pay a price for this. Here’s a (thankfully) hypothetical example: let’s say the UFC decided to hold a one night round robin tournament with 5 competitors. Competitor #1 would be heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar. The other four competitors would be professional figure skaters Elvis Stojko, Rudy Gallindo, Brian Boitano and Evgeni Plushinko. Even if he didn’t bring his “A game”, Lesnar would be essentially have a 100% certainty of beating the four untrained fighters, who also happen to be rather effeminate. If a sportsbook installed Lesnar as a -1000 favorite a bet on the 63 265 pound takedown would still be theoretically a good value. It’s always difficult to risk so much to win a little, but from a strictly theoretical standpoint its a good play.

Don’t try to make a huge profit with little risk: Sports betting provides few opportunities to make a ‘big killing’. It may happen occasionally, but even the big payouts when it occurs doesn’t make chasing big longshots a good value. If you’re serious about sports betting it is crucial to maintain your focus on the underlying numbers and look for value at all times. If you want to take a longshot at a huge jackpot, play the lottery but don’t try to do it at a sportsbook.

Simply stated, the concept of value works the same at the bottom of the wagering ladder as it does at the top. Even if you’re betting a big underdog at a huge price make sure that it accurately reflects the ‘true odds’ of the event occurring.

Don’t bet one sided props: Sometimes sports books will offer silly bets just to get publicity or in some cases just to be funny. While there may be life on other planets, the ‘true odds’ of a Martian being named to President Obama’s cabinet wouldn’t justify a +5000 line that it would occur.

Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer who covers travel, casino gambling and sports handicapping. He is a staff handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, flower arranging and scuba diving. He lives in Southern Nevada with four dogs and a pet coyote.

  Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2010 Kenney

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The Atlanta Falcons are making a statement that they’ll be a factor in the NFC. The Falcons starters behind QB Matt Ryan were almost flawless, and left the reserves with a 14-0 lead before eventually beating the St. Louis Rams 20-13 at the Edward Jones Dome on Friday night.

Running back Michael Turner was unstoppable in his limited playing time, churning out 65 yards in the Falcons opening drive. After the game, he confirmed that the Falcons offense had placed a priority on sound execution:

“We wanted to come out and execute. They were preaching that all week and we wanted to show that on game day. We’re way better than we were last year at this time.”

Quarterback Matt Ryan was 7 of 8 for 81 yards and a touchdown pass before he called it a night. Tony Gonzalez caught Ryans TD pass and after the game was effusive in his praise for the young signal caller:

“He’s a great quarterback. It’s obvious he’s figuring things out. He has a great arm, talent, and knows how to play with poise.”

It was a disappointing home debut for new Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo, who saw his team blown away from the opening whistle before a half empty stadium. Still, he tried to frame the loss as a learning experience:

“Just like I said to the team, we’d have liked to have started out a little better. You’ve got to come out and take it to them.”

Rams safety O.J. Atogwe concurred:

“This was a fabulous game for us. That’s the reason you play the preseason. Going against a team like Atlanta, a top-caliber team, it allows us to reassess what we’ve been doing.”

Falcons coach Mike Smith was most excited about the improved play of his rushing defense:

“We were much improved against the run. It’s something we have to continue to get better at. We still had some missteps.”

The Falcons will continue NFL preseason play next Friday night as they host the San Diego Chargers at the Georgia Dome. The Rams will play the Bengals at Cincinnati next Thursday night.

Ross Everett is a widely published freelance sports writer and respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and World Cup betting sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.

  Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2010 Kenney

Though his scoring records have been obliterated by Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux, former Boston Bruins/New York Rangers center Phil Esposito is still regarded by hockey cognoscenti as one of the greatest offensive players in the history of the game. He is a member of the Hockey Hall of Fame, as is his brother Tony Esposito who was a standout goaltender for the Chicago Blackhawks.

Esposito was born in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario and his prodigious hockey talent quickly became apparent. He was signed by the Chicago Blackhawks as a teenager, and made his NHL debut in’64. In’67, Esposito was traded to the Boston Bruins along with Ken Hodge and Fred Stanfield. Within a few years Hodge and Stanfield blossomed into All Stars, while Esposito quickly took his place alongside his former teammate Hull as the best scorer in the league.

Esposito began to shred the NHL record book in Boston, prompting Bruins fans to display car bumper stickers that read Jesus Saves; Esposito scores on the rebound. In’69, he became the first NHL player to top the 100 point mark (combined goals and assists) for the season”he obliterated the record with 126 points, which would be the first of six times that hed top the century mark. He topped 100 points in five straight seasons between’71 and’75, missing a sixth straight season by a single point with 99 in’70.

In the’70-71 season, Esposito scored 76 goals to smash the NHL’s single season scoring record. That record stood for over a decade until Wayne Gretzky scored 79 for the Edmonton Oilers in’81-82. Gretzky also broke Espositos single season points record of 154. Perhaps the most amazing element of Espositos game was the frequency with which he put the puck on net”Espo had 550 shots on goal in’70-71. No one has since come close”in fact, just last Alexander Ovechkin of the Washington Capitals became the first player to come within 100 shots of Espositos mark.

In’75, Esposito was traded with Brad Park to the New York Rangers for Brad Park, Joe Zanussi and Jean Ratelle. He had slowed somewhat, but was still enough of a valuable player and team leader that he was named the Rangers’ captain. He remained a very dangerous scoring threat until the end of his career.

After his retirement in’75, moved into the executive suite. He served as the GM of the Rangers before helping secure an expansion team for Tampa, Florida in’92. Esposito served as the President and GM of the Tampa Bay Lightning until’98.

Ross Everett is a widely published freelance sports writer and respected authority on World Cup betting. His writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.

BJ Penn entered his main event battle against welterweight kingpin Georges St. Pierre looking to become the first man in UFC history to simultaneously hold titles in two weight classes. GSP never gave him the chance to make history, as he stopped Penn after four increasingly dominant rounds to retain his belt with a TKO victory and make a compelling case for being the pound for pound best fighter in mixed martial arts.

Both fighters had considerable fan support, with vocal, flag waving delegations from the Hawaiian Islands and Canada in evidence. During ring introductions, both men received enthusiastic cheers tempered with a few boos. After the opening horn sounded, however, the Penn backers had little to cheer about while the champions supports broke out in G-S-P chants on several occasions.

Boxing guru Freddy Roach recently praised Penn as the best technical puncher in MMA, but he had no opportunity to bring this weapon to bear as he had trouble finding the range from the outset. GSP mixed up his look perfectly, either staying just outside Penns range using his 6 reach advantage effectively or more often smothering his opponent on takedown attempts. St. Pierre was unable to complete any takedowns during the first round, but easily dictated the pace and style of the bout.

GSP began to assert his dominance in round two”with Penn starting to fatigue he was no longer able to fend off St. Pierres single leg takedown attempts by balancing on one leg. GSP got a takedown early in the frame and began to mount a ground and pound assault while moving around in Penns legendary guard almost at will moving from half guard to side control with frightening ease. At this point, it was apparent that GSPs superior strength and insane physical conditioning were going to figure prominently in the outcome of the fight.

The eventual outcome was foretold between rounds two and three, as the obviously exhausted Penn required a pep talk from his entourage to continue. Across the cage, GSP calmly sipped water and listened intently to trainer Greg Jacksons instructions looking for all the world that he could go 12 rounds if necessary.

Round three was similar to the previous one, with GSP taking his opponent to the mat with a decreasing level of resistance and mauling him with punches and elbows once he got there. His complete control over the BJJ black belt Penn was incredible, but hardly surprising given the way that GSP dominated four time NCAA All American wrestler Josh Koscheck on the ground during their matchup. That may be the most exceptional thing about Georges St. Pierre”his willingness to attack his opponents strengths and success at doing so.

The fourth round was a wall to wall rout for the Canadian welterweight champion, who started by effectively trading strikes with Penn before taking him down once again and resuming his highly successful ground based attack. Penn survived the round on instinct alone, moving around just enough to keep the referee from stopping the proceedings. After the horn sounded to end the fourth round, however, it was evident that Penn had nothing physically or emotionally left. As he leaned headfirst against the cage in exhaustion, an impromptu conference amongst his handlers on whether or not to continue became moot when the fight was stopped by Dean on advice from the ringside physician. There was no argument whatsoever from Penn or his entourage.

Displaying his characteristic class, GSP delayed his celebration until he had crossed the cage and kneeled by his vanquished foe to honor his competitive spirit.

Earlier in the evening, Lyoto Machida kept his undefeated professional MMA record intact with a first round TKO victory over Thiago Silva. Machida may be the best in the world at fighting while backing up, and Silva found his aggressive style working against him. Machida took his opponent down and knocked his opponent down twice”all counters as Silva was coming forward and Machida backing away. As the first round entered its final seconds, it appeared that Silva started to ease up in anticipation of the horn. Machida used this opportunity for another takedown, and then nailed his surprised opponent with a powerful punch that ended the fight.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and highly respected authority on World Cup betting. His writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.

Former Chicago Bears running back Cedric Benson got revenge on the team that let him go in the best possible way. Benson amassed 189 yards rushing and led his new team, the Cincinnati Bengals, to a 45-10 rout over the visiting Bears on Sunday. Carson Palmer threw for five touchdowns with no interceptions in the blowout victory.

The Bengals also made short work of the NFL pointspread, easily covering as +1′ home underdogs. Cincinnati improved to 4-3 against the number while Chicago evened their ATS mark at 3-3.

A smug Benson described his feelings after the win:

“Everybody knew it was going to be an emotional day. Everybody knew. What a wonderful day and a wonderful thing, to go out there and strut your stuff.”

Despite the evidence to the contrary, Benson downplayed the motive of revenge:

“I continue to be as graceful as I can be. I’m not shoving anything in anybody’s face. Like I say, it wasn’t a revenge day for me. I just wanted to take advantage of the opportunities.”

He said his biggest problem was trying to keep his emotions in check and play under control:

“There were a few times where I may have gotten a little too hyped up, a little too antsy. A couple of drives, I found myself having to calm myself down and gather my emotions to stay poised. Once I got past that, we were good to go. Keep it rolling.”

Bengals’ receiver Chad Ochocinco had 10 catches for 118 yards and two touchdowns. He shared his thoughts postgame:

“I don’t understand why it went this way today and why it didn’t go that way last week or the week before that. The offensive line played unbelievable. For Ced to run the way he did today and for us to be able to throw, we could have done what we wanted to do.”

Chicago gave up more points than in any game all season, a fact that left defensive end Alex Brown looking for answers:

“That was pretty embarrassing. It’s embarrassing to come out and play like that. I tip my hat to their whole team. Cedric ran the ball like crazy. They did whatever they wanted to do.”

The Bengals will enjoy a bye week before hosting the Baltimore Ravens on November 8. They’ll then play two games on the road at Pittsburgh and Oakland. Chicago will try to get back on track this Sunday as they host the Cleveland Browns. The Bears are -13′ home favorites with the total set at 40. They’ll host the Arizona Cardinals the following Sunday before heading west for a Thursday night game against the San Francisco 49ers on November 12.

Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer and respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and betting odds portal sites. He lives in Southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.